All thoughts are my own and do not represent views of my employer or any organization I’m affiliated with. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities and shouldn’t be seen as investment advice. This is for informational purposes only
It is a good thing to ask people the following questions: are you prepared to be wrong? Everyone asks me how deep can this go, or can we confirm that the capitulation could be stemmed and are we stabilizing? Is it 50% lower from here or are we already bound to trade within a range? The best way I can answer is this
- ) Life is an ongoing choice between peace of mind (an expensive one as people will sell everything just to get their positions to cash) and risk (actual risk that the companies will never recover) — the permanency of losses. While you’d need defense , your asset allocation contains cash which can be opportunistically invested and deployed in a market that deeply believes we’ll go through a very hard landing (recession, pandemic, oil shocks, margincalls, liquidations you name it.) The answer is small bets. Small is powerful. Do what no one else does. Follow through.
- Time is the capital you have. Money is the capital you own. You have a choice with the situation at hand and to accept it. All the answers are always outside your comfort zone, with things breaking down — whether it drops 5% or 50% further from here — are you prepared to be wrong? Deploy, build and follow through.
Let’s now discuss charts of specific 10X trends:
Secular Trend 1) Connected TV Revolution — As the world stays at home, it remains adamant that everyone’s glued on their mobile phones and smart TVs. These help perpetuate the ongoing necessities of the following companies (Disney, Netflix, Roku, Telaria, The Trade Desk)
Disney is a strong quality name that we’d like to accumulate for our longterm portfolios.
Resistance 122, First Support 97/90/81/68/55
2.) Roku Resistance 115/96 Supported 77/53
3.) Telaria — that escalated quickly. Winner in the Connected TV Revolution. We hit major 6 support in a month. Resistance at 9.33/7.8 Supported at 4.45
4.) Netflix — Too resilient in a COVID world due to stay at home dynamics
Trading Range . Peaked at 375. Resistance at 338. Supports at 286/255
4.) The Trade Desk. With everyone’s glued on their screens (mobile phones, desktops) TTD makes advertising money.
Resistance 239/220
Supported 200/175/164
Secular Trend 2: Gaming — Everyone’s staying at home. The virtual world offers many opportunities for other companies to remain resilient.
Sea Limited — Shopee and Dota2 and League of Legends.
Supported 36/40
Resistance 48
Still in an uptrend
2.) Tencent — Largest videogame conglomerate as well as payments (weChat) and mini-app programs. Largest and most resilient conglomerate in China
Resistance 413/379
Support 315/260
3.) Nvidia — ray tracing, GeForce Cloud, data centers , processors and cloud growth
Range resistance 250
Supports 220/190
4.) Sony (Playstation delays, but gaming PSNow can help make it stay resilient)
Resistance at 6400
Support 5600/5200/4800/4600
5.) Microsoft — Cloud giant Azure, Office 365, Project Scarlett, Xbox to remain resilient as enterprise software and data center growth continues to be a necessity.
Resistance 160/170
Support 139/132/119
We’ll discuss more trends and charts as days go by.
(Are you prepared to be wrong is a personal question that even if the markets can go down — if you’re prepared, you can weather all the recessions and invest appropriately)
- Faceless Trader
